Current situation report for Ecuador - Boiling pot about to burst?

A message for our community of expats and locals in Cuenca.

In light of the complexities of the national landscape, we want to share a detailed analysis that does not seek to cause alarm, but rather to foster a proactive and preventative mindset. It is crucial to understand the full context of the challenges the country is facing in order to be better prepared.

Discontent has been brewing for some time, and while the actions of the current government are a factor, Ecuador's situation is a multifaceted problem. Despite the efforts of the judicial system and the police, the wave of crime has persisted in various cities, while other structural problems have reached a boiling point.

The Ecuadorian public health system, which has historically been a significant financial burden on the state, is at a critical juncture. Staff are overworked, underpaid (or not paid for months), and resources are chronically insufficient. A clear and forceful local example is the Vicente Corral Moscoso Hospital in Cuenca, which is facing a crisis due to growing demand and a 12% budget cut in 2025. This has led to a scarcity of medicines and supplies, damaged equipment, and a deteriorating infrastructure, forcing patients to purchase even the most basic treatments outside the hospital.

In parallel, the Ecuadorian Social Security Institute (IESS) is its own uroboros, eating its own tail, plagued by corruption and negligence. Recent reports have revealed the manipulation of the medical appointment system, affecting thousands of patients. The crisis is not limited to the public sector: private clinics and the Society for the Fight Against Cancer (SOLCA) have asked the government to pay massive debts, warning about the unsustainability of the private health system if urgent measures are not taken.

Ecuador's economy continues to struggle to regain the dynamism it had almost a decade ago. Key sectors such as exports and tourism have faced serious difficulties. Others, such as construction, education, and public and private transportation, have not achieved a significant recovery. This creates widespread economic pressure, directly affecting businesses and families.

In a significant economic move, the Noboa government has eliminated the diesel subsidy. This subsidy, which has been in place since 1974, was fundamental for the profitability of many businesses and for keeping the basic food basket affordable. Its removal is a measure that previous governments (such as Moreno's and Lasso's) tried to implement but backed down from due to the massive protests in 2019 and 2022.

The National Transport Federation has responded with a total, indefinite strike starting Monday, September 15, in the province of Pichincha, in rejection of the price increase from $1.80 to $2.80 per gallon. This increase is not fixed but will operate under a band system, similar to Extra and Ecopaís gasoline. Although the government has announced a compensation bonus for transporters, the guild has declared that the measure is not enough.

While business sectors have supported the decision, arguing that the subsidy fostered smuggling and that the money saved could be allocated to health and education, social organizations like CONAIE have called the measure a "package" that will immediately increase the cost of living.

Perhaps the most disconcerting action has been the temporary relocation of the presidential offices to Latacunga and the vice-presidency to Otavalo. This move, signed by decree, moves the seat of power away from its traditional location in Quito and places the two leaders in opposite provinces and directions, an unprecedented event that has generated various speculations about the administration's stability and strategy.

With the National Transport Federation on strike and the local Cuenca Federation considering joining, the possibility of significant public transportation disruptions is high. This could affect food transport, citizen mobility, and general economic activity.

We recommend that you stay informed through reliable sources, plan your movements in advance, and be aware of official announcements. Being aware of the situation is not a cause for panic, but a way to exercise control over what we can do: be prepared.

Us at the Cuenca Expat HUB will be keeping you up to date. We’ll also transform a portion of our resources to help with important situation reports, news and articulating communications for collaboration and cooperation in our community.

We’ll also turn our Cuenca Contingency Map into a useful map to report on situations around the city.

Make sure you check out our HUBiteers group to be part of a growing community and claim our Interactive Cuenca Map.

Additionally, we’ve prepared for your a special blog article with the Cuenca HUB’s Paros (General Strikes) in South America Success Guide. You’ll be glad you read it!