The Constitutional Crossroads: Ecuador's Major Referendum and the Great Weekend Lock-In

Welcome, readers! Get ready to dive into the most significant political event currently sweeping across Ecuador: a pivotal Popular Consultation and Referendum to be held on Sunday, November 16. This is far more than a routine vote; it's a high-stakes effort by the Executive branch to enact deep-seated security and institutional reforms, potentially rewriting the very foundation of the Republic.

For every resident, citizen, and expat, that electoral weekend is one defined by anticipation, constitutional debates, and the strict—some might say draconian—rules that govern public behavior. From the serious implications of giving the military new constitutional powers to the hilarious ritual of the Dry Law, we're breaking down everything you need to know about this transformative political moment.

Let’s start with the immediate and most widely felt consequence of any major Ecuadorian election: the implementation of the Dry Law (Ley Seca). For many, this is the most memorable (or least memorable, depending on how well they stocked up) aspect of the entire process.

The ban on the sale, distribution, and consumption of alcoholic beverages begins in the early evening of Friday, November 14, and lasts until mid-day on Monday. The rationale is simple: ensuring a sober and orderly democratic process on Sunday, the official voting day.

The Art of Being Unremarkable

While the ban on public drinking is standard, the Dry Law technically extends to private spaces. Will the police kick down your door for enjoying a quiet glass of wine in your living room? Highly unlikely. However, the rule of thumb during this weekend is do not attract attention. If you host a loud gathering or an unauthorized party, you are inviting official scrutiny, and a seemingly harmless alcoholic beverage could quickly become a costly fine. Keep your gatherings subdued, your music low, and your movements discreet.

Strict Rules Near Voting Centers

Electoral centers, typically public and private schools, become legal fortresses on Sunday, and behavior near them is strictly monitored:

• Avoid Political Statements: The Electoral Silence begins on Friday. This means you should not wear any clothing, hats, or accessories that display political messages, whether in favor of or against the government. Public proselytism or campaigning is entirely prohibited near the centers.

• Leave the Gear at Home: Do not carry any arms near an electoral center. Any suspicious activity, especially actions that could be interpreted as sabotage to the electoral process, is subject to heavy fines and potential jail time.

• No Vending Zone: A key restriction during this time is the enforcement of a 100-meter security belt around all voting locations. Informal vendors or anyone attempting to sell goods near the center will be controlled and removed by security forces.

The combination of the Dry Law and compulsory voting (for citizens between 18 and 65) tends to put the country into a commerce coma on Sunday. Many smaller businesses will close entirely, as owners and staff must vote, and the potential for profits is minimal without alcohol sales.

However, not everything shuts down. Major retail chains—including popular supermarkets like Supermaxi, Coral, Tuti, and similar large stores—will generally remain open. They operate under the understanding that residents still require food and essential supplies. Be advised, though, that these establishments will place a physical security belt (such as plastic tape or temporary barriers) around their entire liquor section. This is a common practice to comply with the prohibition on the sale of alcoholic beverages, ensuring the store adheres strictly to the Dry Law without having to close entirely.

If you need essentials, these large chains are your best bet, but be sure to do any bulk or non-essential shopping before the Friday evening of the electoral weekend. And please, don't try to pressure or bribe staff to bypass the liquor barrier—they are simply following the law.

The Referendum component currently consists of multiple questions aimed at directly modifying the current Constitution. If President Noboa secures "Yes" votes on these, it provides a powerful mandate to enact his core agenda items, primarily focused on security and institutional reform.

Previously, when the popular consultation had just been proposed, it was configured to include 11 questions. The main themes of these questions were:

• The increase of scope and range of the military in its internal use, specifically to fight and prevent organized crime. These questions sought to request permission to allow the military to set up permanent checkpoint and posts in roads and prisons. Also the Noboa proposal sought to help the military and police gain the benefit of safer pre-trial cautionary measures, such as home arrest, when they are being investigated for use of lethal force.

• The Noboa political block added at least 4 other questions dealing with the range, scope and severity of certain legal frameworks that pertain prison sentence duration and a strict no-benefits policy for certain types of criminals. They also proposed to both make specific laws that criminalized non-authorized military-grade weaponry in the hands of civilians, as well as streamlining the acquisition of such material by the armed forces and police in case of confiscation.

• Then there was 1 question about the possibility to enhance all kinds of admissions, deportation and migration control procedures to increase security.

• Finally, the last question which was about the allowance to legally set up casinos, betting houses and businesses dedicated to gambling.

However, for one or more reasons, the Noboa block and the National Electoral Council agreed that an 11-question referendum would be very complicated in terms of its viability. Thus, the Noboa block opted to change the approach for a simpler route, with 3 Referendum questions, and 1 Popular Consultation question, in 1 electoral ballot.

The new and final format for the ballot will be comprised of the following themes for its questions:

1. Military Bases: Taking the Fight to Crime

The most high-profile proposal seeks to allow the installation of foreign military bases in the country, without the current legal restrictions. This is a direct response to the escalating power of narco-cartels and organized criminal groups.

Under the current legal framework, allowing foreign military to establish bases in the country and for those forces to aid the fighting against domestic criminal elements and terrorists often requires long and dragged discussions in the assembly and other legal mechanisms to formally create the possibility of a base ever being constructed in the country. Whether Ecuador can or cannot benefit from that, it is hard to say. Most likely it will end up being a tough game of tradeoffs.

2. Draining the Political Swamp: State Funding Reform

A second question targets the elimination of state resources assigned to political organizations. This reform aims to stop what critics call the misuse of public funds by political parties.

While public financing was intended to democratize the political landscape and ensure smaller movements could campaign, the argument is that many movements have become little more than conduits to access these state funds. By eliminating this stream of public money, the proposal seeks to weed out fraudulent or ineffective political groups, compelling genuine parties to rely on membership and private funding.

3. Assembly Diet Plan: Shrinking the Legislature

The third major constitutional change seeks to reduce the number of members in the National Assembly by more than half.

The plan proposes a new structure based on one representative per province plus one additional member for every 400,000 citizens. This move is argued on two fronts:

• Cost Savings: Reducing the number of legislators means saving the state millions in high salaries and, significantly, plus decreasing in the near future the substantial lifetime wages currently paid to any and all former assembly members.

• Efficiency: A smaller body is theoretically less prone to deadlock and more manageable, though opponents argue it may concentrate too much legislative power among fewer individuals.

The most consequential item is the Popular Consultation on whether to establish a Constitutional Assembly. A "Yes" vote here is a vote to temporarily dismantle the current legislative order and embark on a complete, full-scale rewrite of the country's 2008 Constitution.

The Scope of Change

A Constitutional Assembly is not just a constitutional committee; it is a temporary body often granted plenary powers to fundamentally restructure the State.

• Institutional Overhaul: It could lead to a change in the number of state powers. Ecuador currently has five branches (Executive, Legislative, Judicial, Electoral, and Citizen Participation). A new Assembly could consolidate or eliminate some of these, leading to a massive overhaul of national laws and institutions.

• The Power Shift: The last Constitutional Assembly dissolved the sitting Congress and assumed legislative functions. Voting "Yes" on this is a vote for deep, structural change, opening the door for a complete redrawing of political power and social rights.

A Long and Costly Road

If the Assembly is approved, the road to a new Constitution is long, complex, and expensive:

• New Election: Within 90 days of the "Yes" vote, a new election must be held to choose the members of the Constitutional Assembly.

• The Draft: The Assembly will have a maximum of 240 days to draft and approve a new document.

• Final Vote: A final, third national election (a new popular consultation) must be held to either approve or reject the newly drafted Constitution (projected by late 2026 or early 2027).

In short, a "Yes" vote triggers a period of significant political flux, guaranteeing at least two more national elections within the next 18 months. It is estimated that this path would cost the Ecuadorian state around $200 million dollars.

This Referendum and Consultation mark a crucial point in Ecuador's history, where the country is explicitly confronting its challenges in security, governance, and institutional expenditure. Whether you agree with President Noboa's proposals or not, the outcomes will shape the nation for years to come.

So, as the weekend approaches, stock your fridge with essentials, find your quiet corner, and keep an eye on the news. This is a rare, powerful moment in democracy where the very rules of the game are on the table, and every resident is part of the unfolding story.

Also, if you'd like to have more context into the events that have been leading up to this election for constitutional reform, check out our article on the beginning of the recent protest, and one on the overarching narratives of the protest's legitimacy.